The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in psychology that explains the success of content marketing.

But with a twist.

The Dunning–Kruger effect is the illusion of competence that comes from ignorance.  We see something and we say to ourselves – ‘I could do that – how hard can it be?’ – without fully understanding the skill and experience required for mastery.  The Dunning–Kruger effect can be a good thing because it gives us a false sense of confidence to try something new for the first time. Without the naive optimism of the Dunning–Kruger effect, we’d probably give up on a lot of things without even trying.

So how can the Dunning–Kruger effect explain the success of content marketing?

The Dunning–Kruger effect explains the success of content marketing among us as marketers, not among our audiences.

As marketers, we look at the entertainment and education industries, from publishing houses to Hollywood, and say ‘We could do that – how hard can it be?’.

Except of course, we can’t.  The Dunning-Kruger effect means we’re not only not right, we’re not even wrong.

If the publishing industry in its current state of crisis can’t make publishing pay, how come we marketers think we can? The answer is the Dunning–Kruger effect – the cognitive bias of overrating ourselves and our capabilities based on the blind bliss of ignorance.

Becoming a successful publisher or producer of education or entertainment content requires the decades of expertise and experience upon which the education and entertainment industries are built.  As marketers, we can’t just wing it.  If we try, we will crash and burn.  Which is what content marketing is doing.

In 2015, smart brands will get wise to the Dunning–Kruger effect, and get back to doing what they do best, delivering value through advertised products and services – not moonlighting as wannabe publishers, comedians, and movie makers.